Global Outlook: the war in Ukraine

In EIU’s March 2024 Global Outlook video, regional director for Europe, Emily Mansfield, and senior analyst, Adeline Van Houtte, discuss the outlook for the war in Ukraine.

As efforts by both sides to take control of large swathes of territory have given way to a stalemate, the one trigger that could unlock the situation is an important upgrade or downgrade in military equipment for either side. 

As war fatigue increases, shortages of manpower and weapons are worsening in Ukraine. International military support is not as solid as it was and aid packages are at risk of dwindling, preventing a leap in capabilities that could generate a meaningful improvement on the battlefield. On the other side, the Russian economy is increasingly geared towards the war but resources are also constrained. 

EIU expects Ukraine’s military approach to shift from an offensive to a defensive strategy this year. Ukraine will likely ramp up its long-range strike campaign inside Russia as it has been doing on Russian oil and gas infrastructure, in cities located hundreds of kilometres from the frontline. This will push Russia to spread out its anti-air defence and could further disrupt the Russian economy by hitting one of its key economic sectors, oil and gas

Adeline Van Houtte, Senior analyst, EIU

While international support for Ukraine is at risk, the US election is the big wildcard this year as aid could be drastically cut if Trump wins the election in November. This could force Ukraine to the negotiating table, with an outcome imposed on Ukraine on Russia’s terms. 

If the war continues in the longer term, EIU expects Russia’s domestic political constraints to worsen, given growing resistance to mobilisation, and rising inflation, which will increasingly spark social discontent. For Ukraine, joining the EU or NATO will be challenging, not least due to the difficulty of extending security guarantees. Moreover, given the scale of its financing needs, Ukraine faces a long road to recovery and reconstruction. 

The analysis and forecasts featured in this video can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations to identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.