Regional analysis

Asia

Asian growth is settling at a level below its pre-pandemic trend, reflecting slower growth in China and the impact of geopolitical strains, including US-China rivalry. Southeast Asia and South Asia will make steadily higher contributions to regional growth, buoyed by their widening role in regional supply chains.

A busy electoral calendar means that political risk in Asia is set to be elevated. Following polls in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan and Taiwan, elections are still due in India and South Korea in the first half of 2024.

In geopolitics, developments in relation to Taiwan, the South China Sea and the Korean peninsula will remain the main potential flash points, complicating the operating environment in the region.

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