Middle East and Africa in 2022

UAE will continue to expand footprint in East Africa

What’s happened?

The UAE has established and will operate a new US$50m 20‑bed field hospital in Chad, the second one opened by the UAE in the area, which has seen huge refugee inflows from the civil conflict in Sudan. That project forms part of a wider UAE foreign policy strategy, with an increased focus on East Africa. We expect that policy to continue in 2024‑28.

Why does it matter?

UAE foreign policy continues to be guided by commercial interests, with diplomatic, humanitarian and security engagement aiming to enhance the country’s international status and open up opportunities for Emirati firms. UAE interest in East Africa has grown as the country tries to develop commercial links and secure access across the strategic Bab al‑Mandab strait in the Red Sea. The UAE also has strategic interests in maritime and food security, and in mineral resources, in East Africa. However, the UAE’s activities in the region have attracted criticism amid allegations that it is backing the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia in Sudan. Its alleged relationship with the RSF has proved controversial—Saudi Arabia backs the rival Sudanese Armed Forces. The UAE has rejected claims that it is prolonging the conflict in Sudan and asserts that its involvement is primarily humanitarian.

In the Horn of Africa, DP World, a Dubai-headquartered logistics giant, has helped to develop Berbera port in Somalia’s autonomous Somaliland region. Diplomatically too, the UAE backed a January agreement that granted port access at Berbera to Ethiopia, despite strong Egyptian opposition. Ethiopia has emerged as a significant ally of the UAE in the region, with the UAE reported to have supplied armed drones to assist the Ethiopian military in the conflict in the Ethiopian region of Tigray. The UAE also concluded a comprehensive economic partnership agreement with Kenya in February 2024, and, in neighbouring Tanzania, DP World won a bid in late 2023 to upgrade and operate part of Dar es Salaam port. These amount to substantial commercial and security relationships in East Africa.

What next?

The threat to international shipping in the Red Sea from Yemen’s Houthi rebels will reinforce the UAE drive to diversify and secure its commercial partners and diplomatic links. The UAE will expand trade and investment links in East Africa, although it will face competition for influence from other foreign powers, including China and Saudi Arabia. However, its activity will draw some criticism internationally and may lead to attacks against its nationals or facilities; in February three UAE military personnel were killed in Somalia by the militant group al‑Shabab, although it will seek to limit direct involvement in these conflicts. It will consolidate its influence in East Africa primarily through financial aid, investment and diplomacy.

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