Cuba

There have been no more protests on the scale of those that broke out in mid-2021, but the government continues to face challenges on multiple fronts that will test its legitimacy and ability to retain power. We expect that the US president, Joe Biden, who only slightly relaxed restrictions on US-Cuba travel and remittances in 2022, will ease US sanctions further in the face of international pressure and the ongoing migration crisis. Together with piecemeal liberalising reforms within Cuba, this will facilitate a gradual economic recovery, although supply problems will persist. 

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