Guyana

A dispute with Venezuela over the resource-rich Essequibo region, which is legally under Guyana’s jurisdiction, is a major security risk for Guyana. Despite protests from the president, Irfaan Ali, Venezuela held a controversial referendum in early December 2023, which showed overwhelming popular support for the annexation of the 160,000-km territory. Venezuela’s leader, Nicolás Maduro, interpreted this as a legal mandate for a land grab, which caused tensions to escalate as he threatened military action. On December 14th Mr Ali and Mr Maduro met for talks; they agreed to avoid using force to resolve the dispute, but there is still a moderate risk of war materialising under Mr Maduro’s erratic and impulsive leadership.

Although Venezuela’s claim to Essequibo dates back to the 19th century, the dispute had been dormant until 2015, when vast oil reserves were discovered off Guyana’s coast, with a large portion in the exclusive economic zone adjacent to Essequibo. Indeed, oil production has sent Guyana’s GDP rocketing since 2020; we forecast that the economy will grow by a whopping 28.9% in 2024 and by another 19.7% in 2025.

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