Venezuela

The regime, led by Nicolás Maduro of the Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela, will retain power in the 2023-27 forecast period owing to its strict control over the security apparatus and a patronage system that keeps high-ranking officials loyal. It will gear domestic policy towards sustaining an incipient economic recovery by reviving oil production and making piecemeal efforts to attract private investment. However, the business environment will remain abysmal, marred by economic distortions, a lack of financing and crippling sanctions. Mr Maduro’s authoritarianism, along with his support for Russia following that country’s invasion of Ukraine, will impede his efforts to secure comprehensive sanctions relief from the US.

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