Regional allies dial back support for Venezuela

What’s happened?

The left-wing presidents of Brazil and Colombia have openly criticised Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, after the regime blocked several opposition candidates from registering for the upcoming July 28th election. The unexpected rebukes represent a remarkable change in the diplomatic posture of both countries, given that they have long turned a blind eye to other repressive measures taken by Mr Maduro’s government.

Why does it matter?

The Maduro regime’s interference in the electoral process will put Venezuela’s relations with other left-wing governments at risk, potentially exacerbating the country’s isolation on the global stage. The recent prevention of a number of opposition candidates from contesting the election has now drawn open criticism from the Brazilian and Colombian governments, whose presidents, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Gustavo Petro respectively, have been working to rekindle bilateral ties after the non-recognition of Mr Maduro following Venezuela’s 2019 political crisis. Both Lula and Mr Petro had been largely silent on previous authoritarian measures taken by the regime, including the arrest of a prominent human rights activist and the continuation of a political ban on the main opposition figure, María Corina Machado.

The previous rapprochement with Brazil and Colombia had provided Mr Maduro with some geopolitical leverage, given the two countries’ criticisms of US sanctions and their efforts to foster agreements between the Maduro regime and the opposition, as demonstrated by the October 2023 Barbados deal. We believe that the latest reprimand will therefore cause Venezuela’s international credibility to wane further, leaving Mr Maduro with few options other than getting closer to China, Russia, Iran, Cuba and Nicaragua.

Meanwhile, other left-wing governments have taken distinct stances towards the regime’s actions. Chile has been quick to condemn them since last year, although Bolivia and Mexico have remained mostly silent. Mexico recently struck a deal with the regime to assist in returning Venezuelan migrants to Venezuela, a policy that Mexican voters have long urged. Given the proximity of the electoral cycle there, Mexico is unlikely to take a similar route to Brazil and Colombia in openly criticising Mr Maduro.

What next?

Despite the recent diplomatic spat, we do not expect Venezuela’s relations with Brazil and Colombia to come under significant strain. Both countries will remain keen to stimulate negotiations between the Maduro regime and the opposition in an effort to mitigate the chance of a return to crippling economy-wide US sanctions. However, as we assume that the July 28th vote will be neither free nor fair, the Maduro regime will need to contend with a further deterioration of its credibility in the international community, as well as the probable reinstatement of US sanctions later this year.

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