MENA Lebanon

Strike on Iran’s embassy in Syria poses dilemma for Lebanon

What’s happened?

On April 1st a presumed Israeli air strike on the annex of the Iranian embassy in the Syrian capital, Damascus, killed seven senior members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), including General Mohammed Reza Zahedi, who had commanded the IRGC’s elite Quds Force in Lebanon and Syria until 2016. The killing of senior IRGC officers and the increased targeting of high-ranking commanders from Hizbullah, an Iranian‑sponsored Lebanese Shia group, in both Lebanon and Syria is a significant escalation, and Hizbullah is a potential channel for likely Iranian retaliation.

Why does it matter?

Israel has struck Iranian and Hizbullah targets in Syria in the past, including since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war on October 7th and the subsequent upsurge in clashes between Israel and Hizbullah and with some regularity, particularly targeting weapons transfers to Hizbullah traversing Syrian territory. However, the targeting of senior IRGC officers at the embassy is a notable departure from past attacks. In recent weeks, Israel has significantly expanded its targeting of IRGC officers in Syria, as well as of Hizbullah commanders in Syria and Lebanon. The intensification and expansion of Israeli strikes in Syria and Lebanon increases the likelihood of broader armed conflict in the region, particularly in Lebanon, which would probably become the epicentre of any such conflict.

Establishing and nurturing the “axis of resistance”—an alliance of Iranian‑backed armed groups including Hizbullah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Iraqi Shia militias—has been a central tenet of Iranian regional policy in recent years, as part of a longer‑standing enmity with Israel. Iran has sought to establish a “unity of fronts”, deploying an array of Iranian-backed forces on the borders of Israel, including Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and Gaza. Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Syria aim to weaken and deter this alliance of forces and, first and foremost, Hizbullah. In recent weeks as Hizbullah attacks on Israel have intensified, Israel has struck Hizbullah targets beyond its southern stronghold, including in northern Lebanon and Syria. We expect that Iran will be careful in its method of retaliation, but Israel has raised its preparedness levels since the Damascus attack, including calling up air‑defence reserves, stopping home leave for all combat soldiers and jamming GPS signals in central Israel.

What next?

Since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, the unwritten understanding that has governed and contained confrontations between Israel and Hizbullah has been largely abandoned, but both sides, including Iran, appear keen to avert broader conflict. The intensification of Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Syria, intensified Hizbullah attacks on Israel and the lack of viable diplomatic progress in reaching a ceasefire in the Gaza war or de‑escalating in Lebanon increase the likelihood of all‑out war. 

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