UN approves Gaza ceasefire resolution

What’s happened?

On March 25th the UN Security Council approved a resolution calling for an immediate two-week ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war. The US abstained, allowing the measure to pass. This came just days after the US proposed its own ceasefire resolution, which China and Russia vetoed. The recent moves by the US highlight a widening gulf between US and Israeli official positions on the conflict.

Why does it matter?

The latest Security Council votes represent a notable shift in US policy. The US had vetoed three previous UN resolutions, aligning with Israel’s opposition to pausing the conflict. The recent change follows several weeks of the administration of the US president, Joe Biden, signalling a tougher stance towards Israel’s handling of the war, as the humanitarian crisis in Gaza worsens. Mr Biden has particularly opposed Israel’s planned incursion into Rafah, at times calling this a “red line” if such an operation leads to mass civilian casualties. He also commended the recent speech by a Democratic senator, Chuck Schumer, that framed Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, as “an obstacle to peace” and endorsed early Israeli elections. Mr Schumer is the highest-ranking Jewish official in the US and a long-standing supporter of Israel.

Recent events also highlight a growing divergence between US and Israeli priorities in the war. Mr Biden faces divided US public opinion towards the conflict. Conservatives and many moderates, including within Mr Biden’s Democratic Party, are more sympathetic to Israel and adamantly back the US’s long-standing alliance with the country. However, progressive Democrats, who represent a critical voting demographic for Mr Biden, have prioritised the humanitarian crisis facing Palestinians and have called for an immediate ceasefire. Mr Biden is also facing growing international pressure, including from European allies that are more overtly critical of Israel’s tactics. Meanwhile, Mr Netanyahu remains focused on his objectives of eliminating Hamas and rescuing all Israeli hostages in Gaza. His wartime government is very unpopular and faces the threat of early elections, giving him little incentive to end the conflict before fully achieving his military goals.

What next?

The Biden administration will meet with Israeli officials this week to discuss the details of Israel’s planned Rafah operation. It is also continuing negotiations with Israel, Hamas and Arab countries over a potential truce and long-term resolution to the conflict. Reflecting domestic political pressures, we expect the administration to increasingly incorporate the concerns of progressive Democrats into official policy and attempt to de-escalate the conflict ahead of the November US elections. Some of these positions, including a two-state solution, will remain non-starters for Israel. However others, including a temporary ceasefire-for-hostages exchange, increased humanitarian aid and a more limited Rafah operation, are more likely to gain traction.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this video can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations to identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.