Terrorist attack hits Moscow

What’s happened?

At least 137 people were killed in an attack on a concert hall in Moscow, the Russian capital, on March 22nd. Islamic State (IS) subsequently claimed responsibility for the attack, which is thought to have been carried out by its Afghan-based affiliate group, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). Four men believed to be from Tajikistan were arrested by the Russian security forces on March 23rd. A large share of ISKP members come from Tajikistan, where large numbers of people travel to Russia as migrant workers. The attack is a blow to the the Russian security services, but Russian officials will redirect popular anger towards Ukraine. Ukrainian officials have denied any involvement in the attack.

Why does it matter?

The attack exposes weaknesses in the Russian security services, with their focus shifted to the Ukraine war. Combined with high ethnic tensions and economic difficulties, this has made Russia an obvious target. The IS threat is very much present in Russia and has increased after its military intervention in Syria in 2015. ISKP launched an attack against the Russian embassy in Afghanistan in 2022. On March 7th the US intelligence services warned Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, of an imminent attack—a warning that was dismissed by Mr Putin.

Mr Putin will use the attack to crack down on dissent, press freedom and migrant communities. However the main consequences of the attack will fall on Ukraine. Mr Putin will try to divert the blame towards Ukraine, and has already stated that Ukraine had “opened a border window to the terrorists” to help them to flee Russia. Mr Putin stopped short of directly accusing Ukraine of the attack, most probably because US intelligence could undermine such a claim. Nonetheless, this will be sufficient for Mr Putin to use this attack as a pretext to mobilise more troops and try to escalate the war. Russia can mobilise more troops but still has some arms constraints. As at February it had less than 5,000 artillery pieces in the field (compared with almost 20,000 at the start of 2022), according to the UK-based Royal United Services Institute. Given the difficulty in ramping up artillery production, we still expect that this will prevent Russia from taking significantly more Ukrainian territory.

What next?

We expect an expanded offensive against Ukraine in the spring. However, we do not expect Ukraine to lose significant territory, given the manpower and arms constraints that still affect Russia. Our core view remains that the war will be a protracted conflict without a clear-cut resolution.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this video can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations to identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.