Why Biden will win re-election in 2024

  • Contrary to what current polls suggest, we believe that the Democratic incumbent, Joe Biden, will win the November 2024 US presidential election against his Republican rival, Donald Trump.
  • With early polls extremely close and having little predictive power, events in the eight months to Election Day will play a critical role, and we believe that they will benefit Mr Biden the most.
  • A tight race means that a number of factors could still sway the results. Risks to our forecast include the potential for economic or geopolitical shocks, uncertainty around swing-voter intentions and unforeseen changes to the Democratic ticket.

Mr Biden and Mr Trump have now won enough delegates to secure their party nominations, aligning with our view that November’s presidential election will be a rematch of the 2020 race. Although Mr Biden trails Mr Trump in most current polls, we maintain our forecast that Mr Biden will win the election, despite the challenges that he faces. This article outlines the reasoning behind our call and the factors that could persuade us to change it.  

The current polls have weak predictive power

A starting point for our election forecast is the weak predictive power of the current polls. The election is still eight months away, leaving ample time for any number of factors to shift voter opinion, as usually happens. According to 538, a poll aggregator, national and state-level polls conducted this far in advance missed the final result by 8 points on average during the presidential elections in 1972-2020. Unsurprisingly, the polls become better predictors in the weeks just before Election Day, with the gap narrowing to 4-5 points. 

The current polls are also extremely close and volatile. The two candidates’ leads over one another have flipped and oscillated regularly over the past year. Mr Trump is currently ahead of Mr Biden, but by a wafer-thin margin of 1.7 points on average in national polls as at mid-March. This sits well within the current average margin of error (2.6 points), and below Mr Biden’s lead at the same time during the 2020 races (6.4 points). Similar dynamics are at play in many of the battleground states that will decide the election via the Electoral College.

The main conclusion to draw is that the race is still close and fluid, making events that transpire between now and Election Day all the more consequential. A major component of our forecast is the assumption that these will work to Mr Biden’s net advantage.

The economy should benefit Mr Biden, even if it takes time

One factor leaning in Mr Biden’s favour is the economy, which remains a priority for voters. Mr Biden has yet to receive a public-opinion bump from the US economy’s resilience, which continues to buck expectations and long-standing recession fears. However, we expect this to change during the summer months just ahead of the election, when signs of the economy’s strength will become more visible in the areas that voters care about most. By then we expect that inflation (which remains elevated) will have eased closer to 2%, and that interest rates will be falling (which we expect will start in June). Meanwhile, economic growth will stay firm (despite a gradual deceleration) and the labour market will remain strong (we expect positive real wage growth and a still-modest unemployment rate of 4.1% for the full year). The timing of these developments so close to the election should benefit Mr Biden, reinforcing his messaging on economic track record.

We believe that Mr Biden is also well positioned to appeal to voters on other priority issues. Immigration has become a top concern, and the record spike in illegal arrivals at the US-Mexico border will leave Mr Biden vulnerable to blame. However, any attacks by Mr Trump will lack some credibility, given his involvement in discouraging Republican lawmakers from backing proposals for significantly tighter immigration restrictions that Mr Biden endorsed. The fact that Mr Biden can link this to the ongoing dysfunction among Republicans in Congress should further support his standing with voters. Healthcare and abortion also continue to poll as top voter concerns, and we expect Mr Biden to have an edge on both issues, given that they represent key features of his platform and are traditionally areas where Democrats poll more favourably. 

Biden has a clearer path to a “big tent” victory

Mr Biden also has a clearer path than Mr Trump to uniting his party while appealing to independent and swing voters. Such a “big tent” approach will be essential given the election’s “winner-take-all” system.

Mr Biden has struggled to generate enthusiasm around his campaign (in part owing to his old age) and has faced blowback from progressive Democrats. However, these problems have not translated into significant warning signs at the ballot box. He has won 84% of votes on average in the Democratic primaries so far and took about 90% of votes in most “Super Tuesday” races. Meanwhile, a progressive-led “uncommitted” protest vote has captured only an 11% share on average and is showing signs of losing steam. We expect that Mr Biden’s constant overtures to progressives (including on fiscal policy and increasingly on the Israel-Hamas war) will help to shore up their support by Election Day. Democrats’ widespread disdain for Mr Trump should have a similar effect across the party. “Culture war” topics (like abortion and LGBT rights) should also rally participation, including among independents, as occurred at the 2022 midterms. Meanwhile, Mr Biden’s more orthodox positioning than Mr Trump on a range of other policy issues (including trade and foreign policy) should attract support from moderates and some Republicans, as happened during the 2020 elections. 

Mr Trump, in contrast, faces deep divisions within his party, which we believe he will struggle to overcome. His moderate rival, Nikki Haley, captured a quarter of the Republican primary vote on average, and has continued to win double-digit shares even after ending her campaign. Although some of her voters will inevitably back Mr Trump as the official nominee, many probably will not. Exit polls consistently point to a sizeable share of Haley voters who remain unconvinced by Mr Trump; Ms Haley’s refusal to endorse him (at least for now) will do little to relieve their scepticism, particularly as Mr Trump still faces a number of court challenges. Mr Trump probably could win over these voters (and Ms Haley) if he moderated his platform and tone; however, such a dramatic pivot is unlikely, given his commitment to his far-right base and his highly personalised campaign. This will prevent him from widening his appeal to independents, suburban voters and other critical groups. We expect that greater public exposure to his radical policy proposals, particularly during debates (which he has managed to dodge so far), will similarly work against him. 

Biden’s fundraising advantage appears rock solid

Mr Biden also has a distinct fundraising advantage, which we expect will endure. According to latest data reported by the Federal Election Commission, the Biden campaign had US$56m in cash on hand by end-January—well above Mr Trump’s US$30.5m. Mr Biden also outraised Mr Trump that month (US$15.7m compared with US$8.8m), as did Ms Haley (US$11.5m). This mirrors a long-standing fundraising gap between the national party committees. 

Although Mr Trump will get a fundraising boost now that he is the presumptive nominee, his prospects for closing the gap with Mr Biden are limited. His previous threats to blacklist Ms Haley’s donors will narrow his potential fundraising pool, with some of her large backers already confirming that they will not support him. Mr Trump’s mounting legal bills will also be a continuous drain on campaign resources.

What could change our forecast?

Several wildcards could still shift the election’s trajectory in dramatic ways. Although none of these factors are part of our baseline assumptions, they do remain possible and present a very high level of risk to our forecast that Mr Biden will win.

  • Economic or geopolitical shocks rattle Mr Biden’s base. Although recession risks are diminishing, the current delicate disinflation trend could still reverse, prompting interest rates to stay higher for longer, or even to increase again. There is also a risk that conflicts in Europe and the Middle East will escalate further, requiring deeper US involvement. Such events would limit Mr Biden’s ability to campaign persuasively on track record, compromising his appeal across the political spectrum and even among Democrats, who may choose to back a third party or not vote at all. 
  • Ms Haley strongly endorses Mr Trump. The chances of Ms Haley backing Mr Trump are finely balanced. She may withhold her endorsement indefinitely, or she could decide to back him if his campaign shows no signs of derailing by Election Day. A full-throated endorsement is unlikely, given her fierce attacks against him, but it would give Mr Trump more traction with moderate voters and donors than we currently expect.
  • Mr Biden exits the race. Although unlikely, it remains possible that Mr Biden will end his campaign prematurely, owing to his old age or persistent popularity issues. This would risk destabilising the Democratic Party. Mr Biden’s vice-president, Kamala Harris, is unpopular, but replacing her would be controversial and divisive. Regardless, the new candidate would face the challenge of mounting a compelling campaign with little lead time before the election.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this video can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations to identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.