Asia elections monitor 2024

Biden and Trump win big on Super Tuesday

What’s happened?

Joe Biden and Donald Trump enjoyed commanding victories in the “Super Tuesday” primaries on March 5th. Both candidates are now positioned to clinch their party nominations months before the summer nominating conventions. However, the results underscored enduring weaknesses in their campaigns, which will continue to weigh on their chances of winning November’s presidential election. 

Why does it matter?

The presidential election is now effectively a two-horse race. Mr Trump won all but one of his 15 Super Tuesday primaries, moving ever closer to the 1,215 delegates required to secure the Republican nomination. The results prompted Nikki Haley, his only remaining challenger, to end her campaign, after picking up only two primary wins during her entire presidential run. Shortly afterwards, Mitch McConnell, the outgoing Republican leader in the Senate (upper house), announced his endorsement of Mr Trump, setting aside their recent disagreements and potentially boosting Mr Trump’s credibility with the party’s establishment wing. In the Democratic races, Mr Biden made a clean sweep in all 15 states, capturing about 90% of the vote in most of them. His only loss occurred in American Samoa, a territory with few delegates and no electoral votes. Mr Biden won the endorsement of Dean Phillips, who lost in his home state of Minnesota. This leaves Marianne Williamson as Mr Biden’s only remaining primary challenger, although we expect her to end her long-shot campaign soon. 

The Super Tuesday races highlighted a number of obstacles that continue to dog Mr Biden and Mr Trump. Ms Haley still captured a quarter of the vote on average in the races that she lost, illustrating that a still-sizeable share of Republican voters remain unconvinced by Mr Trump. Her decision to withhold a formal endorsement of the former president (at least for now) will weigh on his prospects of attracting her supporters, including critical groups like moderates and suburban voters. Meanwhile, Mr Biden again faced a noticeable protest vote, largely attributable to progressives and critics of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war. The “uncommitted” option received 19% of the vote in Minnesota, up from 13% in the earlier Michigan primary. Similar results were visible in North Carolina (13%) and Colorado (9%). If reflective of voter intentions in November, this will be a liability for Mr Biden, who continues to underperform in national polls.

What next?

With another 12 state primaries scheduled in March, we expect Mr Biden and Mr Trump to surpass the required delegate thresholds to win their party nominations by the end of the month. Their campaigns will quickly refocus on a head-to-head match. With both struggling against low popularity, they will face the challenge of uniting their divided party bases while still appealing to undecided voters.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this video can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations to identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.