US presidential nominee picks come into view

What’s happened?

Joe Biden and Donald Trump comfortably won their respective party primaries in Michigan on February 27th, following decisive wins in South Carolina’s primaries earlier in February. The results support our forecast of a Biden-Trump rematch at November’s presidential election, while offering additional clues about their potential paths to victory.

Why does it matter?

The results all but confirm the eventual presidential nominees. Donald Trump trounced Nikki Haley, his remaining primary rival, in her home state of South Carolina, before defeating her by 42 points in Michigan. Ms Haley has hinted that she will soon suspend her campaign, and we expect this to happen after a series of likely defeats at the 16 “Super Tuesday” races on March 5th.  Other recent events have confirmed Mr Trump’s hold on the Republican Party, including the announced exits of moderate Republicans from key congressional posts and the departure of the Republican National Committee chair following pressure from Mr Trump. Meanwhile, Joe Biden maintained his wide lead over his two main primary challengers, neither of whom will gain traction in upcoming races.

The primaries also highlighted key obstacles for both candidates ahead of November’s election. Mr Trump still struggles against a significant protest vote, which has kept Ms Haley’s campaign alive. With about 20% of Haley supporters expressing “Never Trump” sentiment at exit polls, there is a risk that Mr Trump will never capture these voters, especially if Ms Haley refuses to endorse him. Mr Trump also performed poorly among suburban voters, which could become a liability given that roughly half of national voters live in these districts. Mr Biden also faced a sizeable protest vote, in Michigan, with an “uncommitted” category receiving 13% of votes. This reflected opposition from the state’s large Arab/Muslim population to his handling of the Israel-Hamas war, underscoring the issue’s divisiveness among Democrats and a potential challenge for Mr Biden in this crucial swing state.

The primaries coincided with the release of the latest campaign fundraising data, highlighting additional obstacles for Mr Trump. His campaign raised US$8.8m in January, trailing Mr Biden’s and even Ms Haley’s. The Trump campaign also had a fraction of Mr Biden’s cash on hand, and will face the added pressure of supporting Mr Trump’s mounting legal fees. A strong “Never Trump” sentiment among Ms Haley’s large donors means that some may never back him.

What next?

Mr Biden and Mr Trump are set to perform strongly during the “Super Tuesday” races, after which we expect Ms Haley to drop out. Whether or not Ms Haley endorses Mr Trump will not affect his chances at the Republican nomination, but will shape his appeal to crucial swing voters at November’s presidential election.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this video can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations to identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.