• Home
  • The EIU Update
  • Risk outlook 2024: continued high interest rates could lead to global recession

Risk outlook 2024: continued high interest rates could lead to global recession

Though EIU expects stable, but unspectacular, global growth in 2024, continued geopolitical tensions, monetary tightening and supply chain disruptions could weigh heavily on the global economy in the coming year. EIU’s Risk outlook 2024 evaluates the top ten events that could have a severe impact on our core economic and geopolitical forecasts, challenging the operations of businesses worldwide.

Monetary policy tightening extends deep into 2024, leading to a global recession and financial volatility
Moderate probability; High impact

Although EIU’s baseline forecast assumes that monetary policy tightening has ended, there remains a moderate risk that inflation will re-accelerate in 2024 encouraging central banks to continue tightening well into next year. The resulting rise in interest rates could kick off a chain of events that would eventually result in a global recession.

Extreme weather events caused by climate change disrupt global supply chains
High probability; Moderate impact

Extreme weather events have until now been sporadic and geographically isolated, but they could start to happen in a more synchronised manner. Severe droughts and heatwaves could severely impact production, leading to food shortages, straining global supply chains and driving up household costs. Food shortages in some parts of the world could lead to mass migration, or even war, triggering severe political impacts in those countries that could ripple through to others.

China moves to annex Taiwan, forcing a sudden global decoupling
Low probability; Very high impact

Regardless of its trigger, a large-scale conflict between China and Taiwan would weigh heavily on Taiwan’s economy, and its semiconductor industry would be temporarily cut off from the global supply chain. A cross-Strait war could also draw in military participation by the US, Australia, South Korea and Japan and prompt the EU and other US-aligned governments to impose trade and investment restrictions on China.

The Israel-Hamas war escalates into a regional conflict
Very low probability; High impact 

If the military conflict between Israel and Hamas evolves into a long drawn-out war, other state and non-state actors sympathetic to the Palestinian cause may become involved, turning the conflict into a regional one and widening its economic and geopolitical impact. It would also decisively end efforts at Israeli-Arab rapprochement.

Artificial intelligence disrupts elections and undermines trust in political institutions
Moderate probability; Low impact

More people than ever are using generative AI. With vital elections scheduled in 2024—including the EU parliament, US, UK, India and Taiwan—there is a greater risk of disinformation in campaignsvia text, imagery, audio and video in the coming years. This could shift the result of major elections and more broadly erode voters’ trust in political systems.

Download the complete report to learn about all ten of EIU’s global risk scenarios by clicking here.

eiu.com/n/campaigns/oct-23-risk-outlook-2024/(opens in a new tab)

The insights and data featured in this report come from EIU’s Operational Risk service. This integrated solution provides an in-depth analysis of global events that are affecting operational risk in 180 countries and 26 industry sub-sectors. Find out more about Operational Risk and how you can benefit from the service here.