Food security remains a major issue in MENA

Article tags Climate ChangeFood securityRiskMiddle East and AfricaCountry AnalysisEIU Store

• We expect the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region to remain one of the most import-dependent in the world in the medium and long term. About 50% of the region’s food is imported. Some progress is being made on agri‑food technology in countries such as Israel, which will help in the longer term. However, given high population growth rates—with population growth of 1.7% in 2020 across the MENA region, the second fastest globally, behind only Sub-Saharan Africa—technological change needs to be much faster to prevent food insecurity figures from worsening in the near term.
• War‑ravaged Yemen and Syria have by far the highest levels of food insecurity, indicate that long‑running conflicts will remain the leading driver of the region’s worst food insecurity. In each case, supply bottlenecks, collapsing currencies and the destruction of infrastructure have worsened the situation. 
• Broader geopolitical risks relating to these conflicts—including a Saudi Arabian‑led blockade of one of Yemen’s main ports, and US sanctions on Syria—have also seriously restricted access to imports. Given that the US’s gradual disengagement with the region could give rise to new pockets of conflict as countries vie to fill the space it leaves behind, geopolitics is likely to remain a central determinant of food insecurity.
• In addition to conflict, the MENA region is already experiencing the impact of climate change, with water shortages affecting a number of countries, including Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Algeria, in 2021. This in turn limits the availability of resources that are needed for production in traditional agricultural sectors. As the region becomes increasingly dry, agricultural production is likely to decline in some countries, with Iran, Iraq and the Gulf countries at particular risk.

Wed, 03rd Nov 2021 Article tags Climate ChangeFood securityRiskMiddle East and AfricaCountry AnalysisEIU Store