China's emerging city rankings 2022

Global Outlook: China’s zero-covid U-turn

In EIU’s latest global outlook video, global forecasting director Agathe Demarais and principal economist for China Yue Su, discuss the lifting of China’s zero-covid policy.

In December the Chinese government announced a series of measures that essentially lifted the country’s zero-covid policy. A tiered medical system has been put in place to try to deal with surging case numbers. However, low vaccination rates among the elderly and the lack of healthcare facilities in rural areas mean that China’s outlook will be bleak in early 2023.

From an economic standpoint, shocks to global supply chains and consumption appear inevitable. Ultimately, though, our EIU experts believe that the relaxation of zero-covid rules will be beneficial to the Chinese economy overall. They have revised up China’s GDP forecast for 2023 to 5.2% (from 4.7% previously).

“China’s post-pandemic recovery will differ from that of other major economies. The recovery in private consumption will be mild, owing to the negative impact of zero-covid on personal incomes and the absence of household-focused stimulus.”

Yue Su, Principal Economist for China, EIU

Learn more about our economic outlook for China through EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, helping organisations identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.