steel production

Russian and Ukrainian commodities review: base metals

  • Russia is a major producer of base metals, notably aluminium and nickel. The country is the second-biggest (for nickel) and the tenth-biggest (for aluminium and copper) global exporter of these metals, which are used in sectors ranging from steel and automotive production to consumer goods and aerospace industries. Ukraine is not a top exporter of these metals, but it is a significant exporter of copper to Belarus, Uzbekistan, Moldova and Azerbaijan.
  • We have produced a map assessing the reliance of 112 countries on key base metal imports from Russia and Ukraine in 2021. It depicts a weighted proportion of imports of aluminium, copper, nickel, tin and zinc from Russia and Ukraine relative to total imports of these base metals. In addition to Russia and Ukraine, Australia and China were excluded, as they are top producers of all five metals.
  • We found that countries that represent more than 77% of global GDP imported significant quantities of at least one of these base metals from Russia or Ukraine in the past year. 
  • Of these countries, 33 imported more than 10% of these metals from Russia and Ukraine in 2021. These countries spanned multiple regions that include close neighbours to Russia, such as Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan; EU member states such as Finland and the Netherlands; and emerging markets including Qatar, Kenya and Mongolia. Conversely, 75 countries imported less than 10% of these metals from Russia and Ukraine last year.
  • We expect the price of all five of these base metals to rise by 17-20% (tin), 12-15% (copper), 27-38% (aluminium), 30-42% (zinc) and 57-64% (nickel) this year owing to the combined effect of the war in Ukraine and continued supply-chain disruptions.

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