Harvest of wheat field.

Global wheat trade faces constraints amid Russia’s invasion

  • Russia and Ukraine accounted for 30% of the global wheat trade before Russia’s invasion. Since then, war, logistical issues and sanctions (in Russia’s case) have significantly reduced the ability of both countries to remain reliable suppliers.
  • We have produced a map assessing the reliance of 84 countries on Russian and Ukrainian wheat imports. The countries that we assessed all imported wheat from Russia or Ukraine in 2021. This graphic highlights the proportion of Russian and Ukrainian wheat imports relative to total wheat imports. The top ten global wheat producers and exporters were excluded, because we believe that they will be able to remain self-sufficient despite the disruptions.
  • We found that one-third of the world’s population live in a country that imported Russian or Ukrainian wheat in the past year. More than 570m people live in countries that imported more than 40% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine in 2021. These countries represent less than 4% of global GDP and are primarily developing economies in the Middle East and Africa region, as well as close neighbours to Russia, such as Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia.
  • Countries that imported more than 10% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine and that have low domestic production will face growing competition to seek alternative supplies amid high global commodity prices. Meanwhile, countries importing less than 10% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine are unlikely to be severely affected by disruption caused by the war. Most of these countries are EU members or countries with an EU trade partnership that will be able to make up for lost imports by leaning more heavily on major regional exporters, such as France and Germany. 
  • We expect wheat prices to rise by 38% in 2022, on top of a 32% increase in 2021. Such high prices will fuel global inflation, raising the risk of food insecurity (or even famines) in developing countries.

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