North America: regional outlook summary

Despite ongoing geopolitical turmoil, the regional economy has proven to be quite resilient. We forecast that the US economy will expand by 2.2% in 2024. Meanwhile, Canada’s economy is forecast to grow by 1.9%, supported by the strength of the US market and strong commodity prices. However, with a Biden-Trump rematch looming, political and policy risk remain high.

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Themes covered in this report:

US growth will prove resilient in 2024, strengthening Canada’s economy in the process

The avoidance of a recession in the US is unusual compared to past cycles

Industrial policy in the United States won’t shift decisively under either a second Biden or Trump presidency

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Prospects are poor for advancing new legislation before US elections in November

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