Asia elections monitor 2024

India’s general election 2024: the story so far

What’s happened?

Three phases of India’s general election have been completed, with the latest being held on May 7th. So far, voting has been completed for 283 out of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha (the lower house of parliament). The election will have four more phases and is due to conclude on June 1st, with the results scheduled for declaration on June 4th. Polling has thus far taken place without reported instances of social unrest or large-scale rigging, except in Manipur, which continues to grapple with protracted civil turmoil.

Why does it matter?

The most significant aspect of the election process has been voter turnout, which is somewhat lower than in the previous election in 2019. EIU believes that reduced turnout could translate to a lower seat count for the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). However, the party will nonetheless win the ballot with a respectable, albeit not staggering, majority. Voter turnout in the first three phases of the general election was 66.1%, 66.7% and 64.4% respectively, compared to the overall level of 67.4% in 2019.

The lower turnout can be attributed partly to extreme heatwaves in several parts of the country, which have prevented more robust voter participation in the ballot. It can also be linked to increased apathy and fatigue among urban voters, as many regions lack multiple choices in the ballot. This trend will affect the support base for all parties.

We believe that the re-election of the BJP government has the potential to deepen communal rifts within the country, if the party resolves to realise some of its more divisive agenda items, such as implementing the Uniform Civil Code to create a single set of rules across all religions, or using the National Register of Citizens to identify illegal residents. The country has undergone occurrences of communal unrest under the BJP government, given the party’s Hindu-nationalist agenda.

However, history suggests that instances of social and communal unrest rarely have a large-scale impact on businesses in India, and this will remain the case. Although multinationals will remain wary about India’s domestic track record on communal relations, its large market and growing economy will overshadow these considerations.

The election campaign has included an increase in incendiary and communal remarks from members of both the incumbent and opposition parties. The Election Commission of India has responded to this trend by serving notices to the relevant political parties, but has chosen to refrain from directly serving notices to star campaigners, in a setback to an otherwise independent body. These developments will erode the reputation of the prime minister, Narendra Modi, as an unbiased leader. As the BJP’s religious rhetoric appeals to the country’s Hindu majority, especially in the populous northern and central belts, it is likely to benefit the ruling party at the ballot box.

As we expected, the recently formed Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) grouping, which forms the main electoral opposition to the BJP, has struggled to find its footing. We believe that the bloc, led by the main national opposition party, the Indian National Congress, will continue to struggle with partisan considerations and in-fighting between its constituent parties. The post-election period could bring some defections to the BJP, weakening the bloc further.

Congress’s manifesto, released in April, focused primarily on a nationwide socioeconomic and caste census, a legal guarantee of minimum support prices in agriculture and raising the Supreme Court-mandated limit on reservations, a system of affirmative action for marginalised communities. While a general need for more equitable growth in the country has been highlighted, the opposition has failed to offer a distinct alternative plan for governance that sets it apart from the BJP. Congress has proposed a nationwide economic audit for possible wealth redistribution policies should it return to power. We believe that this policy will not sit well with a large section of the urban populace and would be very difficult to implement in practice.

What next?

We retain our forecast for the BJP to secure a dominant victory in the general election and to return to power for a third term. Mr Modi will remain the country’s key political figure throughout the next term, because of his deep-seated influence and high domestic approval rating.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this video can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations to identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.